Thailand as you read this piece is currently voting en masse in today’s consequential National Assembly election. These elections are a huge deal in Thailand and the electoral commission itself expects an 85 % turnout rate today. About 45 to 50 million Thais will step into ballot boxes nationwide today and voice their input on the direction of Thailand. Millennials and Zoomers in particular will have a loud say.
A new government in the coming weeks and months will be formed off of the results of today’s vote. This piece will establish the key personalities you should be aware of and the possible permutations that could emerge from the vote.
PRAYUTH CHAN-O-CHA
Born to a military man, he himself pursued a similar career path, eventually ascending to the position of the Commander of the Royal Thai Armed Forces in 2010. Throughout his career, he was part of the elite Queen’s Guard, an influential infantry division within the broader army.
A staunch opponent of the Shinawatras, he played a critical role in the 2006 coup and the 2010 crackdown on pro-Shinawatra protestors. He also contributed significantly to the 2014 coup that ousted Yingluck Shinawatra.
Following the 2014 coup, he transitioned into politics, serving as the head of a government initially led by the military. This period marked the development of a new constitution in 2017. From 2019 onwards, he assumed the role of Prime Minister for a civilian government elected according to the new constitutional guidelines.
Fondly referred to as Uncle Tu by his supporters, he is revered as a stalwart of the conservative movement, a fervent royalist, and a staunch supporter of the Thai military. He is perceived as a patriot who has stepped forward to restore order amidst chaos threatening Thailand. To his detractors, however, he symbolizes a military that remains unwilling to cede power and is viewed as a threat to genuine civilian-led democracy. The way he is seen largely depends on one's perspective on modern Thailand.
In the current election, he has polled slightly behind the front-runners, yet his party is still expected to secure around 30 - 40 seats due to his popularity in Upper Southern Thailand. He also commands significant support among a considerable number of senators, who contribute 250 seats and have a say in the selection of the Prime Minister. In certain scenarios, particularly where a minority government needs to be established, he could potentially emerge as the leading figure.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Being Paetongtarn Shinawatra was not an easy path growing up, and it has proven to become even more challenging over the past decade. Despite her youth, at the age of 36, she carries the weight of one of Thailand’s most recognized surnames, being directly related to two former Thai Prime Ministers, including her father, who redefined the landscape of Thailand's electoral politics.
In 2006, while studying at Chulalongkorn University, one of Thailand's most prestigious institutions based in Bangkok, she learned about the coup that ousted her father from power. Following graduation, she moved to England to pursue a master’s degree before returning to manage her family's business interests in the hospitality sector.
Now, Paetongtarn Shinawatra leads the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party, a political group that enjoys immense support in the Northeastern and Northern Thai heartlands. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, tapped into this region's deep-seated pride and relative poverty, establishing a strong emotional connection with voters. This bond was subsequently passed on to his sister Yingluck, and now continues to influence his daughter's political traction.
Tonight, Pheu Thai is anticipated to secure the majority of seats, with predictions ranging between 250 to 310 seats. A result leaning towards the higher end would indeed be cause for celebration. However, if the party underperforms, there is a chance that Paetongtarn may not be nominated as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Instead, other influential party figures, such as property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, could be proposed to ease the formation of a coalition with established pro-establishment parties.
Pheu Thai could potentially form a coalition government with the Move Forward party. However, significant ideological differences, particularly concerning the Monarchy (including the reform of lese-majeste laws) and broader political reforms, create a substantial divide between the two parties. During the campaign, these tensions have manifested in a verbal tug-of-war, as they compete for the same voter base.
Pita Limjaroenrat
Pita has emerged as the sensation of this electoral season, largely due to his audacious policy positions, once considered too radical to even campaign on in Thailand, and still viewed as quite radical by certain segments of Thai society.
Much like Thaksin before him, the sentiment surrounding Pita is intensely polarized. Those who admire him, truly adore him, and those who dislike him, do so with fervor. Fortunately for him, his enthusiasts include the youthful masses of Bangkok, where he has become a symbol for a restless generation of young professionals and college students seeking a fresh Thai social contract.
Move Forward, the party Pita represents, has a bold agenda. It aims to abolish military conscription, reform the Royal Lese Majeste rules to allow free speech around the monarchy, reverse the recent weed legalization, and has numerous ideas for Thai industrialization and economic advancement.
Throughout the campaign, Pita has been a relentless force, hustling from Chiang Mai to Phuket, communicating his vision with vigor. In the process, he has, to the conservative Thai Establishment, become an even greater antagonist than the Shinawatras. His popularity has surged over the election season, and as polls close tonight, there's a SLIM possibility, but still a possibility, that Move Forward will claim the most seats in the election.
However, due to his party's radical positions, it's likely he won't be invited to join any coalition efforts. Thus, he may have to serve as a key opposition figure for the next four years. That's assuming he even makes it into the National Assembly, as there are already murmurs about his possible disqualification over undisclosed shares in a media company at the time of his candidacy declaration.
A successful night for his party would involve collecting between 100 - 150 seats. This outcome could potentially enable a Pheu Thai - MFP coalition to overcome a hostile senate, although it remains uncertain whether Pheu Thai would want to form a coalition government with MFP.
PRAWIT WONGSUWON
Prawit is a former Commander in Chief of the Royal Thai Armed Forces and a hugely popular dealmaker within conservative circles. He is widely known to be Prayuth’s mentor and also has served as his deputy prime minister since 2014.
In this election season he is running on a separate party platform from Prayuth on a party called Palang Pracharath(People’s State Power Party)(PPRP).
I mention him here because he could play a potential Kingmaker role or possibly support Prayuth via his won seats. He also has a large degree of support and influence among the 250 senators, and he will probably carry to government formation talks about 20 to 30 seats in the House Of Representatives.
He’s one to watch tonight when the results come out.
A Final Note
This election is set to alter the established pillars of Thai politics, and as the exit polls start rolling in, we may find ourselves bracing for a wave of surprises. I anticipate a robust performance from Pheu Thai and Move Forward, but the question of whether Pheu Thai can cobble together a coalition that can reach the 375-seat threshold without the overt support of Move Forward remains tantalizingly uncertain.
The formation of the government, as a result, is likely to be an intricate and painstaking process, likely requiring the embrace of traditional establishment elements. In that sense Prayuth and Prawit may indeed have the last laugh, political champions even to the end.
As the dust settles on the campaign battlefield, it's almost as if we can hear the collective holding of breath across Thailand. The first exit polls are about to be announced in a few hours, as the future of Thai politics hangs precariously in the balance.
So, as we sit on the edge of our seats, let's see what the initial numbers have in store. Will they validate the predictions, or will they defy the odds? Only time will tell. For now, let's brace ourselves for the revelations that these first exit polls will bring.