I apologize for the delay. My September has involved quite a bit of travel and its been hectic staying on schedule. I’m back now and with a bit of insights on Nigeria and its upcoming blockbuster election in February 2023.
Initially when thinking of this piece I was going to write a complete sprawling piece which would cover all four major candidates, the varied geographic algorithms they would need to be assured of victory, and some interesting tidbits to look out for in terms of Governors + senatorial races.
I then realized such an undertaking wasn’t needed because with Nigeria’s election kicking off as of yesterday, September 28th 2022, we have a lot of time to savor the campaign and really unwrap it candidate by candidate, region by region.
Nigeria’s 2023 election is a bit unprecedented because there are four major contenders. Atiku Abubakar of PDP, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People Party, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. The last time a Nigerian presidential election was this competitive and at a risk of a second run-off was in the controversial 1979 election which will be a story for another day as it has parallels with this upcoming vote. Given to win a Nigerian election in the first round you need 50.01+ % of the vote and at least 25 % of the vote in 24 of 36 states, we could possibly witness the first second round presidential run off in modern Nigerian history given the fine lines we are currently witnessing.
Today’s piece is about Peter Obi who in just a few months has gone from a presidential hopeful who left his own party, the People Democratic Party (PDP), to join the Labour Party(LP). When Peter Obi left the PDP in May, after failing to capture the nomination for the PDP it was extremely easy to write off his chances. The thoughts ran the gamut, “this man is done, no third force could be taken seriously, a new Kingsley Moghalu, is he thinking straight”?
But yet over an extraordinary summer Peter Obi has transformed from a mere respectable political figure into a kind of cultural tentpole at large for Nigeria’s middle class, and especially one for Nigeria’s long suffering Igbo minority, the dominant ethnic nation of Nigeria’s southeast. The crowds of young people who rally for him online and in person call themselves “Obidient”, the “Obidients” with youthful zeal dominate the discourse on facebook and twitter and refuse to see any disrespect for their candidate. Whatever what one may think of the realism of Peter Obi reaching the highest seat in Aso Rock, its clear we must pay attention to him at the very least.
Peter Obi has rapidly emerged as this contest’s central candidate, in part because of how he disrupts traditional voting patterns.
Straight Talker
Peter Obi first emerged on the national scene in 2019 when he was a part of the PDP Presidential ticket with Atiku Abubakar. He quickly became a national favorite and a contrast on the Nigerian political landscape due to his straightforward pitches which often revolved comparing Nigeria to other emerging markets, and what Nigeria could do to learn from them.
While Atiku lost a painful fifth electoral campaign to Buhari in the general election, many were hopeful that Obi would become a true contender for the PDP’s nomination come 2023.
Obi’s straight talking way and his general technocratic bent is a trait from his professional career, where he was a prominent career banker before his entrance into a political career. Obi was born in 1961, which if elected, would make him the first Nigerian president elected post Nigerian independence, and finally sever the long chain of 1960s/1970s era military men that have long dominated Nigerian political life.
Obi after an academic career that encompassed sojourns at the University of Nigeria and the University of Lagos, by the early 2000s had assumed chairmanship of Fidelity Bank, one of Nigeria’s largest banks. Now for many Nigerian businessmen that’s where the apex would set in, and there wouldn’t be more to the story.
Peter Obi strived for more by pursing the Governor race in his native state of Anambra in 2003, under the banner of the regional party APGA. Its here we can see a bit of the mettle of the man. He supposedly lost to Chris Ngige of PDP in that gubernatorial race, but he challenged the proceeds of the vote count. The court proceedings took three long years but in March 2006 he was awarded the Governorship where he proceeded on an ambitious policy experiment in Anambra. He was the first Governor in Nigerian history to win their seat via the courts.
In his early months as Governor of Anambra he chose to reform the at the time corrupt procurement system, seeking to eliminate the waste occurring in the Governor’s office. The Anambra parliament seeing a tenant of their corruption under attack decided to impeach him. With the help of the courts once again he was reimposed as Governor just a year later in 2007
If this isn’t enough of a headache, a year after this INEC, Nigeria’s electoral regulator, decided to hold an election in Anambra in 2007 because it stated Obi had no right to his own independent four year term, because his predecessor, Chris Ngige who was serving a illegal term if you remember, had already served the first three years of Obi’s term. Never mind the fact that Obi barely had even gotten an actual year of service. Andy Uba, another PDP figure won that election. The courts once again came through for Peter Obi, and decided that every Governor’s term is independent of his predecessor and that no term in the office can be less than four years. Peter Obi once again through his recognition and respect for the rule of law clarified constitutional norms for the state of Anambra and was allowed to serve until 2010 when an election for his second term could be held.
In these episodes we can see that Peter Obi has dogged powers of stubborn behavior. Despite facing a huge chunk of the Southeastern political establishment, he never faltered in his focus and seemingly challenged obstacles at every corner of the way. He left the Anambra Governor’s office in 2014 but he left a state transformed, with better fiscal health restored and better governmental services running.
Through his focus on fiscal responsibility he left the state in a far better state of affairs. Its through this early political experience in Anambra where the Obi Model and mythology now is quite apparent. A primary insistence on rule of law, a dogged focus on fiscal responsibility, a rush to attract foreign investment, and an agenda oriented around healthcare + education improvements. As much as all of this is worth some degree of hype, the decision-makers at PDP HQ largely disagreed.
A Party In Disarray
Heading into the party nomination season starting in May, Peter Obi was rightly hyped as one of the leading contenders for the presidency, alongside Atiku Abubakar, Nyesom Wike, and Bukola Saraki among others. What played out in the PDP in May/June evolved into a farce however. The party primary as with most major Nigerian political parties occurs in shadowy rooms where aspiring presidential candidates largely broker for votes from party delegates with money + promises/favors. This pattern is replicated across much of Black Africa, and explains why there are parties that repeatedly nominate the same losing candidates election after election.
Nigeria’s elections are painfully expensive and a high rolling affair, and part of the reason is the primary process is entirely money driven. Rather than deciding who’s best placed electorally to win, delegates can often be brought off, and to be honest quite a lot of candidates can be brought off as well. Its in this hornets nest that Obi tried to navigate the election initially, advocating for his appeal to certain demographics and his general charisma.
This approach generally failed and the PDP decided to proceed with five times loser Atiku Abubakar largely due to his already high prominence in the party and his well known reputation for wealth and generosity.
Such an action has complicated life for the PDP though, because not only did they skip including Obi on their party’s platform, but Atiku also neglected to come to terms with Governor Wike, who as the Rivers State governor is arguably one of the party’s most powerful individuals and who at least saw himself getting the VP nomination before being skipped over for Ifeanyi Okowa, the current governor of Delta State. Wike has decided to make life increasingly miserable as a result for Atiku which poses serious challenges for the PDP in its once formidable southeastern and south-south strongholds.
Entering amidst this dysfunction then is Peter Obi, who is poised to make the PDP’s heartland his voting base. As an Igbo man, Peter Obi has managed to revitalize the region politically. The story of Southeastern Nigeria since 2015 has largely been one of political marginalization and apathy, fueled in part by ardent secessionists whipped into a frenzy by the now jailed activist Nnamdi Kanu, the founder of Radio Biafra, a pirate radio station that galvanized Igbo youth.
Peter Obi at the very least has appeared like a breath of fresh air in the region, and as a serious contender for the country’s presidency has offered a fightback against forces that assert that Nigeria is a completely failed experiment with no hope going forward. Whether he can maintain that even in the event of a loss or a controversial election process will be quite interesting to witness.
Nigeria’s southeast will prove to be one of Obi’s core voting regions.
As will the Nigerian South South
Its in PDP’s momentary disarray and moment as a house divided where Obi already leaps into a strong position by having roughly 11/36 states largely in his column. Now let’s dive into Obi’s weak points and then the points that suggest he could win.
WHY OBI WON’T WIN
I’ve been quite nice to Peter Obi for this entire piece, but let it be known I am not a supporter(largely because I’m not Nigerian and I’m trying to stay impartial). There are weak points of Obi’s candidacy though, severe weak points that all the major party candidates share, which is why the 2023 election is going to be bonkers.
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